Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 133,710
2 South Dakota 131,237
3 Rhode Island 126,808
4 Utah 119,206
5 Tennessee 115,760
6 Arizona 115,026
7 Oklahoma 110,092
8 Iowa 109,976
9 Arkansas 109,001
10 Wisconsin 108,209
11 Nebraska 107,216
12 South Carolina 105,446
13 Alabama 104,378
14 Kansas 103,890
15 Mississippi 101,889
16 Indiana 101,357
17 Idaho 99,746
18 New Jersey 98,381
19 Nevada 97,890
20 Illinois 96,940
21 Montana 96,913
22 Wyoming 96,411
23 Georgia 96,367
24 Texas 95,280
25 Kentucky 95,260
26 Delaware 95,104
27 Louisiana 95,029
28 Missouri 94,439
29 Florida 93,888
30 California 92,326
31 New York 92,257
32 New Mexico 90,643
33 Minnesota 89,952
34 Massachusetts 89,618
35 North Carolina 86,251
36 Ohio 85,791
37 Connecticut 84,303
38 Alaska 83,674
39 Colorado 78,832
40 Pennsylvania 77,897
41 West Virginia 77,241
42 Virginia 71,142
43 Michigan 70,226
44 Maryland 66,429
45 District of Columbia 61,619
46 New Hampshire 59,668
47 Washington 47,182
48 Puerto Rico 43,367
49 Oregon 38,433
50 Maine 36,283
51 Vermont 28,739
52 Hawaii 20,446

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 New Jersey 420
2 Rhode Island 408
3 Connecticut 362
4 Michigan 347
5 Tennessee 308
6 New York 264
7 Alaska 241
8 Massachusetts 233
9 Delaware 228
10 Pennsylvania 205
11 Vermont 201
12 New Hampshire 200
13 Florida 188
14 West Virginia 176
15 Minnesota 174
16 Montana 167
17 South Carolina 163
18 District of Columbia 147
19 Louisiana 145
20 South Dakota 142
21 Iowa 141
22 Idaho 140
23 Georgia 136
24 North Carolina 136
25 Virginia 136
26 Maryland 132
27 Wyoming 125
28 Nebraska 123
29 Illinois 119
30 Kentucky 119
31 Maine 119
32 Texas 116
33 North Dakota 115
34 Ohio 114
35 Colorado 104
36 Indiana 96
37 Oklahoma 96
38 Utah 95
39 Washington 83
40 New Mexico 80
41 Missouri 73
42 Puerto Rico 69
43 Arizona 67
44 Mississippi 62
45 California 61
46 Nevada 59
47 Oregon 59
48 Kansas 50
49 Wisconsin 49
50 Alabama 47
51 Arkansas 44
52 Hawaii 44

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,729
2 New York 2,517
3 Rhode Island 2,459
4 Massachusetts 2,454
5 Mississippi 2,344
6 Arizona 2,307
7 Connecticut 2,200
8 South Dakota 2,173
9 Louisiana 2,159
10 Alabama 2,131
11 North Dakota 1,960
12 Pennsylvania 1,943
13 Indiana 1,924
14 New Mexico 1,862
15 Illinois 1,845
16 Arkansas 1,838
17 Iowa 1,801
18 South Carolina 1,753
19 Tennessee 1,704
20 Georgia 1,697
21 Michigan 1,694
22 Nevada 1,684
23 Kansas 1,664
24 Texas 1,645
25 Delaware 1,576
26 Ohio 1,572
27 Florida 1,528
28 District of Columbia 1,489
29 California 1,465
30 West Virginia 1,458
31 Missouri 1,447
32 Maryland 1,355
33 Montana 1,327
34 Kentucky 1,312
35 Wisconsin 1,243
36 Minnesota 1,215
37 Oklahoma 1,210
38 Wyoming 1,200
39 Virginia 1,187
40 Nebraska 1,160
41 North Carolina 1,132
42 Idaho 1,093
43 Colorado 1,067
44 New Hampshire 895
45 Washington 689
46 Puerto Rico 657
47 Utah 647
48 Oregon 564
49 Maine 543
50 Alaska 407
51 Vermont 352
52 Hawaii 318

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Kentucky 6
2 Massachusetts 4
3 New Jersey 4
4 California 3
5 Delaware 3
6 Louisiana 3
7 Missouri 3
8 Rhode Island 3
9 South Carolina 3
10 Arizona 2
11 Maryland 2
12 Mississippi 2
13 New Mexico 2
14 Texas 2
15 West Virginia 2
16 Arkansas 1
17 Connecticut 1
18 Florida 1
19 Georgia 1
20 Idaho 1
21 Illinois 1
22 Indiana 1
23 Montana 1
24 Nevada 1
25 New York 1
26 Ohio 1
27 Tennessee 1
28 Utah 1
29 Virginia 1
30 Washington 1
31 Wyoming 1
32 Alabama 0
33 Alaska 0
34 Colorado 0
35 District of Columbia 0
36 Hawaii 0
37 Iowa 0
38 Kansas 0
39 Maine 0
40 Michigan 0
41 Minnesota 0
42 Nebraska 0
43 New Hampshire 0
44 North Carolina 0
45 North Dakota 0
46 Oklahoma 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Pennsylvania 0
49 Puerto Rico 0
50 South Dakota 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 350,437 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 314,385 2 99
Bent Colorado 266,093 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 243,551 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 243,550 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 134,299 210 93
Richland South Carolina 104,058 1042 66
York South Carolina 100,232 1215 61
Orange California 83,443 1996 36
Pierce Washington 45,532 2905 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Foard Texas 7,792 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,669 5 99
Orange California 1,460 1789 43
Davidson Tennessee 1,274 2004 36
Richland South Carolina 1,258 2028 35
York South Carolina 1,239 2063 34
Pierce Washington 660 2720 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons